National Weather Center Convection/NWP Seminar Series
Organizers: Dr. Louis Wicker, Ryan Sobash
This seminar is held Fridays at 3:00 p.m. in NWC 5600 during the regular OU spring and fall semesters.
|01/24/14||Jill Hardy||SoM||Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting using Stormscale Ensembles
Flash flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards in the US and across the globe. The loss of life and property from flash floods could be mitigated with better guidance from hydrological models, but these models have limitations. For example, they are commonly initialized using rainfall estimates derived from weather radars. This introduces a problem for forecasting flash floods because the time interval between observations of heavy rainfall and a flash flood can be on the order of minutes, particularly for small basins in urban settings. Increasing the lead time for these events is critical for protecting life and property. Therefore, this study advances the use of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the stormscale CAPS ensemble system into a distributed hydrological model setting to yield basin-specific, probabilistic flash flood forecasts (PFFFs).
Rainfall error characteristics of the individual CAPS members are first diagnosed and quantified in terms of structure, amplitude, and location (SAL; Wernli et al., 2008). To compute the PFFFs, we considered the June 14, 2010 Oklahoma City flash flood event. This new approach is shown to: 1) identify the specific basin scales within the broader regions that are forecast to be impacted by flash flooding based on cell movement, rainfall intensity, duration, and the basin’s susceptibility factors such as initial soil moisture conditions; 2) yield probabilistic information about the forecast hydrologic response; and 3) improve lead time by using stormscale NWP ensemble forecasts.
|03/21/14||No seminar||Spring Break|
Subscribe to the listserv for this seminar series here:
To schedule a seminar, send your talk title (or a working title) to "louis.wicker at noaa dot gov" and "rsobash at ou dot edu". Seminar dates towards the end of the semester tend to fill up quickly, so reserve early! Unless you are a graduate student doing your required departmental seminar, your seminar need not fill the entire hour, nor be carefully polished. We encourage presentations (short or long) on works in progress!
To those presenting, e-mail your abstract to the organizers, as well as Marcia Pallutto (SoM), no later than one week before your seminar. The abstract will be placed in the weekly seminar e-mail and on this webpage.
For accommodations based on disability, or more details, please contact the School of Meteorology at 325-6561. Visitor parking is available for all University visitors. However, faculty/staff/students must have a current multi-purpose parking permit. Additional parking is available at the Lloyd Noble Center for those individuals who do not have a parking permit. OU ID must be presented at security desk.
Fall 2013 | Spring 2013 | Spring 2012 | Spring 2011 | Fall 2011