School of Meteorology (Defense)
Class Lecture: Introduction to Seasonal Climate Prediction
Ceara Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME)
04 May 2012, 10:30 AM
National Weather Center, Room 1313
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Research over the last century, and particularly in the last couple of decades, has shown that, in many regions of the world, the seasonal climate is potentially predictable. When the boundary conditions that force the atmosphere (e.g. sea-surface temperatures and land surface characteristics) are strongly perturbed, significant shifts are produced in the probabilities of different weather regimes that occur over a season. To the extent that the relevant boundary conditions and their associated climate impacts are predictable, skillful seasonal forecasts are possible. This lecture covers a range of issues involved in seasonal climate forecasting, including 1) sources of climate predictability, 2) prediction methodology, 3) forecast product and format, 4) forecast verification, and 5) a brief consideration of the coming decades that seeks to improve seasonal climate prediction.
This lecture assumes a general understanding of basic concepts underlying atmospheric science. However, the technical content is kept to a minimum, seeking more to provide conceptual understanding. It is anticipated that this lecture will be useful as part of introductory material for climate science as well as for professionals involved in using or communicating climate prediction information.