Boundary Layer, Urban Meteorology and Land-Surface Processes
Application of Copulas to Tall Tower Wind Assessment
OU School of Meteorology
30 April 2012, 4:00 PM
National Weather Center, Room 5930
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Globally, the perception and usage of wind power have seen dramatic changes over the last decade, as countries respond to their needs for energy security, economic security, and environmental sustainability. As a result the accurate characterization of surface layer wind resources on regional and local scales has become increasingly important. Traditionally the power or log laws are used to deduce wind relationships within the surface layer. However, the poor accuracy of the power law and data constraints associated with the log law make both methods sub optimal for the vertical interpretation of wind distributions. Thus the use of a statistical tool known as a “copula” is proposed as a new means of estimating surface layer wind distributions. Through the use of tall tower wind data it is shown that a properly selected copula can provide a reasonable estimate of 50 and 80 m wind distributions given minimal data input. Finally the bivariate copula distribution is used as a means of characterizing uncertainty in the 50 and 80 m wind distributions provided only an observed or expected wind speed at 10m.