National Weather Center Colloquium

Impact of High-Frequency Boundary
Layer Observations on Model Forecasts of
Extreme Events

Dr. Sean Crowell

School of Meteorology

07 May 2013, 4:00 PM

National Weather Center, Room 1313
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Norman, OK

Proposed network of remote sensors would perform indirect measurements of wind, temperature, and humidity, which are currently measured operationally only by weather balloons twice per day. The higher frequency of the proposed measurements is expected to add predictive skill to a model forecast system, in which the measurement data would be assimilated, while the larger (relative to soundings) measurement errors could possibly result in a degradation of model skill. The impact of these assimilated data is investigated for a wintertime storm and a springtime convective storm using a pair of observing systems simulation experiments. The goal of the experiments is to evaluate the potential of a national network of the remote sensors of this kind for better forecasting of high-impact weather events. Obtained results indicate a sensitivity of model performance to data assimilation framework and model error formulation, but on the whole suggest possible improvement of numerical predictions of precipitation intensity, as well as location and timing of convection initiation.

Speaker bio

National Weather Center Colloquium Seminar Series website