School of Meteorology (Defense)
Exploration of New Methods for Predicting Convection Initiation
OU School of Meteorology
02 July 2013, 8:00 AM
National Weather Center, Room 5820
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Accurately predicting the formation of convection initiation (CI) has been an ever-present challenge for the weather-forecasting community. Due to the societal effects of convection, especially of the severe variety, benefits could be gained from its successful prediction. In convection allowing models (CAMs), appropriate “proxies” need to be chosen to adequately represent CI. These must also include natural analogs for the purposes of model verification. The methods for choosing the CI product, and its verification, are both challenging.
Simulated proxy-based CI products were introduced into an experimental setting in 2011 and 2012 during the annual Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE) conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). Between SFE2011 and SFE2012, changes were made to the CI products based on lessons learned in the initial year. During these SFEs, human forecasts were made for CI and convection in general based on a blend of operational and experimental guidance. Both the human and model forecasts then underwent subjective scrutiny as well as objective verification and analysis. There is still much to be done with respect to refining a simulated CI product that provides reliable results for the implementation in an operational setting. This thesis, however, works toward laying the groundwork for continuing such an endeavor.
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