National Weather Center Colloquium
Upscale Effects of Deep Convection during the North American Monsoon
Dr. David Stensrud
National Severe Storms Laboratory
03 September 2013, 4:00 PM
National Weather Center, Room 1313
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Reception @ 3:30 PM
The ability of deep monsoon convection to influence the larger-scale circulation over North America is investigated for a 6-day long case study during the 2006 North American monsoon season. Results from Rossby wave ray tracing and numerical simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model indicate that North American monsoon convection provides a source region for stationary Rossby waves. Two wave trains are seen in the numerical model simulations, with behaviors that agree well with expectations from theory and ray tracing. The shorter and faster moving wave train moves eastward from the source region in Mexico and reaches the western Atlantic within 4 days. The longer and slower moving wave train travels northeastward and reaches the coastal New England region within 6 days, influencing convective activity along the east coast. An upstream tail of anticyclonic vorticity extends westward from the source region into the central Pacific Ocean. Implications of these results for operational forecasting and regional climate will be discussed.
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